Fractales y opinión públicaUna aplicación del exponente de Hurst al estudio de la dinámica de la identificación ideológica

Résumé

The aim of this study is to demonstrate the existence of fractal graphical patterns in the collective behaviour of the Spanish people about their ideological identity. The main hypothesis is that the time series of the ideological identity (Left-Right Scale) in Spain will present fractal patterns of functioning. Also, these series should show characteristic cycles and its behaviour would not be a random walk. DESIGN AND METHODS: A time series of 251 points gathered of the ideological scale of the Barometers of the Sociologic Research Centre (CIS) of Spain (national level) is analyzed. This series extends from June of 1983 to April of 2006. The methodology used was Rescaled Range Analysis (Hurst Exponent). This analysis detects the presence of fractal features in time series, allowing to discover persistence or antipersistence in the behaviour of series, in addition to cycles of volatility, as it occurs in stock market prices. RESULTS: The general series displays a Hurst H = 0.091, indicating presence of fractal features. The antipersistence of the series suggests an action of regulatory mechanisms of negative feed-back to get dynamic stability of the system. The series has a value H of 0.398 in time lag smaller than 45 months and H 0.115 in greater lag, which indicates the existence of cycles of change, around this time lag. The series of the political sectors (from the extreme left to the extreme right) also displays antipersistence and cycles of change. CONCLUSION: Like an econometric study, the application of Hurst Exponent in the analysis of collective behaviours in policy, allows to report their volatility and characteristic cycles. It seems to be that the fractality occurs in many natural systems and human behaviours, also including to the politic issues. This study has been able to determine the fractality of the Spanish political behaviour, utility to forecast voting behaviour and, mainly, aid to understand the emergence of public opinion. "